Premier League · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
Arsenal vs Leeds United
| Outcome | Arsenal | Draw | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 1.38 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Market % | 69.1 | 19.2 | 11.6 |
| Model % | 52.9 | 30.6 | 16.5 |
| Difference | -16.2 pp | +11.4 pp | +4.9 pp |
Our model is less bullish on Arsenal than the market.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge.
Why the model says this
The probabilities come from a Dixon–Coles model fitted only on matches that had already finished. It uses league home advantage and each team's attack and defence strength. It does not use injuries, suspensions, or the starting lineup.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent form
Arsenal L W W W W
Leeds United D W D D W
Head to head
- 2025-08-23 · Arsenal 5–0 Leeds United
- 2026-01-31 · Leeds United 0–4 Arsenal
Evidence
- data through
- 2026-10-05
- sample size
- 1190
- market snapshot
- 2026-10-05T01:57:03+00:00
- model version
- dc-rho--0.123-n1190
- source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.