Method
How a probability gets onto the page.
From completed results to published probabilities: the model, the market and the rules behind the record.
Model
Home and away goals are Poisson rates. Attack and defence ratings are estimated from finished matches only, with a half-life so older games count less, and a penalty that pulls thinly observed teams toward the league average. A low-score correction, the Dixon–Coles term, stays positive. Setting that term to zero is the independent Poisson model.
Market
Decimal 1X2 prices from one bookmaker at one time are turned into probabilities by dividing the inverse prices by their sum. Several bookmakers are averaged only after each book has been normalised. The highest price from each book is never pasted into one fake market.
What is left out
Injuries, suspensions, coaches, and confirmed lineups are shown only when a source is stored, and they do not change the probability. If two sources disagree, the page says availability is unclear. Missing fields stay empty.
Record
A prediction row is inserted, never replaced. Backtests and predictions frozen before kickoff are separate. See the record.