Premier League · Sat, 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
Aston Villa vs Brentford
| Outcome | Aston Villa | Draw | Brentford |
|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.50 |
| Market % | 35.6 | 27.0 | 37.4 |
| Model % | 31.6 | 27.2 | 41.3 |
| Difference | -4.1 pp | +0.2 pp | +3.9 pp |
Our model is less bullish on Aston Villa than the market.
Probabilities are not guarantees. A gap between the model and the market is not evidence of a betting edge.
Why the model says this
The probabilities come from a Dixon–Coles model fitted only on matches that had already finished. It uses league home advantage and each team's attack and defence strength. It does not use injuries, suspensions, or the starting lineup.
Team news
No confirmed team news is included.
The current model does not use injury-level adjustments.
Recent form
Aston Villa W L D L L
Brentford W D D D W
Head to head
- 2025-08-23 · Brentford 1–0 Aston Villa
- 2026-02-01 · Aston Villa 0–1 Brentford
- 2023-12-17 · Brentford 1–2 Aston Villa
- 2024-04-06 · Aston Villa 3–3 Brentford
- 2024-12-04 · Aston Villa 3–1 Brentford
- 2025-03-08 · Brentford 0–1 Aston Villa
Evidence
- data through
- 2026-10-05
- sample size
- 1190
- market snapshot
- 2026-10-05T01:57:03+00:00
- model version
- dc-rho--0.123-n1190
- source
- Odds snapshots and finished Premier League scores
- limitations
- The model does not use injuries or confirmed lineups.